On the Brink: The Final Two

The end is upon us. Two teams remain in the relegation fight with just two weeks remaining. Chivas and Veracruz long ago excused themselves from this battle and recently mathematically confirmed their safety. Puebla has found themselves on the bottom for some time. Their fight can't be questioned; their quality is highly questionable. Puebla continue to drop chances for attainable points. With two games left, their fate is truly on a razor's edge.

Fortunately for them, La Franja is not alone in this. Leones Negros can't seem to get a result at this point. Through fifteen played, they have amassed a grand total of ten goals. Shocking as it may seem, ten in fifteen doesn't lead to a lot of points. Luckily for the faithful of the University of Guadalajara, they don't need many points to secure safety. They still have the advantage over Puebla despite having a lower points per match ratio than their competitors. Puebla has the lead but their fate is in the hands of the team from Guadalajara.

 

TABLA DE DESCENSO

17. Puebla - 100 games played - 101 points - 1.010 ppg

18. Leones Negros - 32 games played - 32 points - 1.000 ppg

 

UPCOMING SCHEDULE  

Week 16: Leones Negros hosts Veracruz, Puebla hosts Leon

Week 17: Leones Negros at Cruz Azul, Puebla at Santos Laguna

 

Seeing as there are only two jornadas left in this fight and the need to revisit the calculator at every step, here are the breakdowns for each possible scenario. Hold on, this could get ugly:

 

 If Leones Negros defeats Veracruz ...

AND Puebla loses to Leon --- It's all over. Puebla will be relegated. Week 17 is irrelevant.

AND Puebla draws with Leon --- Puebla would be relegated with a Leones Negros draw or win in Estadio Azul regardless of Santos v. Puebla result. A Leones Negros loss to Cruz Azul and a Puebla win over Santos would result in an equal percentage and send relegation to goal differential. Puebla would probably have the goal differential advantage.

AND Puebla defeats Leon --- Puebla would be relegated with a Leones Negros draw or win in Estadio Azul regardless of Santos v. Puebla result. A Leones Negros loss to Cruz Azul AND a Puebla win over Santos would result in Leones Negros being relegated. A Leones Negros loss to Cruz Azul AND a draw between Santos and Puebla would result in an equal percentage and send relegation to goal differential. Puebla would probably have the goal differential advantage. A Leones Negros loss to Cruz Azul AND a loss for Puebla in Torreon would result in Puebla being relegated.

 

If Leones Negros draw with Veracruz ...

AND Puebla loses to Leon --- A Leones Negros win over Cruz Azul will relegate Puebla regardless of their match with Santos. A Leones Negros draw with Cruz Azul means that Puebla will need a win over Santos to secure safety. Two draws in the opposing week 17 matches would result in an equal percentage and send relegation to goal differential. Puebla would probably have the goal differential advantage. A Leones Negros draw with Cruz Azul AND a Puebla loss to Santos would relegate Puebla. A Leones Negros loss to Cruz Azul would relegate them regardless of the Puebla v. Santos result.

AND Puebla draws with Leon --- A Leones Negros win over Cruz Azul will relegate Puebla regardless of their match with Santos. A Leones Negros draw or loss with Cruz Azul would relegate them regardless of the Puebla v. Santos result (A Leones Negros draw AND a Puebla loss would send relegation to the goal differential tiebreaker - Puebla should still have the advantage).

AND Puebla defeats Leon --- Leones Negros would need to defeat Cruz Azul to escape relegation. Puebla's match with Santos would be basically irrelevant. A Leones Negros win would keep them safe. A draw or loss would relegate them.

If Leones Negros lose to Veracruz ...

AND Puebla loses to Leon --- Leones Negros would need to defeat Cruz Azul to escape relegation. Puebla's match with Santos would be basically irrelevant. A Leones Negros win would keep them safe. A draw or loss would relegate them.

AND Puebla draws with Leon --- A Leones Negros loss or draw in Estadio Azul would send them to relegation. A Leones Negros win over Cruz Azul would mean that Puebla would need to defeat Santos to survive. A Leones Negros win over Cruz Azul AND a Puebla draw or loss would relegate Puebla.

AND Puebla defeats Leon --- A Leones Negros loss or draw in Estadio Azul would send them to relegation. A Leones Negros win over Cruz Azul AND Santos defeating Puebla would save Leones Negros. A Puebla draw or win over Santos would relegate Leones Negros regardless of the match in Estadio Azul.

 

That was messy. I apologize. If you aren't crazy and would just like some of the big themes to be gleaned from this mess, here goes:

 

* Four or more points in these last two matches for Leones Negros would save them.

* Leones Negros will have a hard time avoiding relegation without one win in final two matches.

* Cruz Azul and Santos will likely have a lot to play for in the final week trying to secure Liguilla spots, but not as much as their opponents. We could have some epic battles.

* The results of the matches for Leones Negros are mathematically more important for Puebla than their own.

 

*** Artwork is used under a creative commons license from Jake Brewer

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